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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.